The Oregonian pointed out today that over 11,000 Oregonians have left the Republican Party since Election Day. Twitter is full of commentary. Here’s some context:
Both parties typically lose around 1% in registrations by the January after a presidential election.
In 2004, Dems lost 1.75%
This (1.44%) is indeed the worst decline for Rs in 20 years, but it only brings them to… Sept 2020 levels.
While Rs lost more than 11,000 since November, they gained 43,256 registrations in the 3 months before the election.
There is no significant defection from the Republican Party in Oregon. Their problem is not enthusiasm but demographic: growth barely exceeds replacement levels.
This is the key story for understanding politics in Oregon.
Oregon voter registrations in January 2005:
- Democrats: 815.887
- Republicans: 754,183
- Democrats: 1,048,511
- Republicans: 753,195
- Democrats: +232,624 (+29%)
- Republicans: -988 (-0.1%)
The Republican Party in Oregon stopped growing a long time ago.